Euro area business cycle dating committee Self couple camera sex
In both recessions and expansions, brief reversals in economic activity may occur-a recession may include a short period of expansion followed by further decline; an expansion may include a short period of contraction followed by further growth.The Committee applies its judgment based on the above definitions of recessions and expansions and has no fixed rule to determine whether a contraction is only a short interruption of an expansion, or an expansion is only a short interruption of a contraction.Philippe Weil: We determined that the euro area business cycle experienced a peak in the third quarter of 2011, so that means that economic activity in the quarters that preceded the third quarter of 2011 was actually lower than at the peak, and that since then economic activity in the euro area has been in decline. Does it differ from, for example, the NBER’s definition of a recession? The idea is to try to date the business cycles in the euro area, but when we say ‘business cycles’ we don’t necessarily mean the evolution of GDP.What we do does not boil down simply to the usual two-quarter decline or two-quarter increase in GDP that could be applied mechanically and for which no committee would be needed.We need to have, for reasons that we might get in to later if you wish, a wider view of what’s going on both in terms of components in GDP and, very importantly, in terms of labour markets, to have a feel of what actually is the evolution of economic activity.The recession from our point of view is a prolonged slowdown of economic activity interpreted widely.On the basis of these past statistical revisions what he’s done is compute the probability that, three years from now, we might regret the date that we’ve set – 2011 third quarter – for the peak in euro area economic activity.
That’s why we look at the labour market, and that’s why we look at the components of GDP.This is probably what has caused employment to turn down so quickly and slightly ahead of time of the current peak that took place in the third quarter of 2011.VD: To an extent you’re dealing with imperfect information.We have only very imperfect knowledge of what’s going on at a given time and a given date.
Data are published with a lag, and on top of that they are revised for long periods of time, sometimes for years afterwards.
The NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee maintains a chronology of the U. A recession is a period between a peak and a trough, and an expansion is a period between a trough and a peak.